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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Michigan Squeaker

  The Michigan and Arizona Republican Primaries were held on Tuesday night.  Arizona was no big surprise with Mitt Romney taking that state with 20 percentage points over Rick Santorum. The big story though was Romney's home state, where he won with just a 3 point lead. Michigan was thought to be a slam dunk for Romney, where he grew up and where his father had been a very popular governor. Anything less than a win would have been a near fatal blow for the Romney campaign. In Michigan Ron Paul came in third with 11.6% and Newt Gingrich with 6.5%. In Arizona, after Mitt Romney's 47%, Rick Santorum's 26%, Newt Gingrich was at 16% and Ron Paul at 8.5%.
  So why was the vote so close for a guy with the home state roots behind him? There was an attempt by the Santorum campaign with robocalls to registered Democrats to encourage them to get out the vote for Santorum. But while the robocalls may not have done the trick, about 100,000 Democrats did vote for Santorum, possibly the result of Unions encouraging their members to vote for Santorum in an attempt to derail Romney. The dirty little secret is that the person the Democrats fear the most is Mitt Romney. He is the candidate with the most money and the most organization to give Barack Obama a run for his money. They see Rick Santorum as the weaker candidate mainly because the main stream media has tried to portray him as only focusing on social issues. There is also some thought that Romney has yet to convince a large portion of hard core Conservative voters that he is indeed, a Conservative, leaving his questionable "Romney Care" days behind him. 
 Next on the agenda is "Super Tuesday", where 10 states will hold primaries. Of those 10 states, 7 have "open" primaries, where Democrats as well as Republicans are eligable to vote. Newt Gingrich is expected to do well in the south, taking his home state of Georgia. Mitt Romney could increase his delegate count in Alaska, Idaho, and of course Massachusetts. Rick Santorum will no doubt take a large portion of Evangelical Christian voters in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma.
By this time next week, Republicans may have a better idea of just exactly where this process is headed.     

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